Directed-Graph Epidemiological Models of Computer VirusesJeffrey O. Kephart and Steve R. White
Abstract:Despite serious concerns raised by the proven ability of computer viruses to spread between individual systems and establish themselves as a persistent infection in the computer population, there have been very few efforts to analyze their propagation theoretically. The strong analogy between biological viruses and their computational counterparts has motivated us to adapt the techniques of mathematical epidemiology to the study of computer virus propagation. In order to allow for the most general patterns of program sharing, we extend a standard epidemiological model by placing it on a directed graph and use a combination of analysis and simulation to study its behavior. We determine the conditions under which epidemics are likely to occur, and in cases where they do, we explore the dymanics of the expected number of infected individuals as a function of time. We conclude that an imperfect defense against computer viruses can still be highly effective in preventing their widespread proliferation, provided that the infection rate does not exceed a well-defined critical epidemic threshold. Copyright 1994 Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers. Reprinted from Proceedings of the 1991 IEEE Computer Society Symposium on Research in Security and Privacy; Oakland, California, May 20-22, 1991; pp. 343-359. This material is posted here with permission of the IEEE. Such permission of the IEEE does not in any way imply IEEE endorsement of any of IBM's products or services. Internal or personal use of this material is permitted. Personal use of this material is permitted. However, you must copy this document in its entirety, without modifications, INCLUDING THIS COPYRIGHT NOTICE. However, permission to reprint/republish this material for advertising or promotional purposes or for creating new collective works for resale or redistribution must be obtained from the IEEE. For information on obtaining permission, send a blank email message to info.pub.permission@ieee.org. By choosing to view this document, you agree to all provisions of the copyright laws protecting it.
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