Measuring and Modeling Computer Virus Prevalence
Jeffrey O. Kephart and Steve R. White
Abstract:In an effort to understand the current extent of the computer virus problem and predict its future course, we have conducted a statistical analysis of computer virus incidents in a large, stable sample population of PCs and developed new epidemiological models of copmuter virus spread. Only a small fraction of all known viruses have appeared in real incidents, partly because many viruses are below the theoretical epidemic threshold. The observed sub-exponential rate of virual spread can be explained by models of localized software exchange. A suprisingly small fraction explained by a model in which, once a machine is found to be infected, neighboring machines are checked for viruses. This "kill signal" idea could be implemented in networks to greatly reduce the threat of viral spread. A similar principle has been incorporated into a cost-effective anti-virus policy for organizations which works qiute well in practice. This material is posted here with permission of the IEEE. Such permission of the IEEE does
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