Hoaxes & Hypes

Virus hoaxes and virus hypes are new and growing problems in the corporate environment, where the spread of such rumors can cause as much disruption as actual virus outbreaks. We review a number of recent examples of hoax and hype, and show that hoaxes that become widespread have certain characteristics that promote their spread. Using these characteristics, it is possible to create a set of rules which will help to distinguish fabrication from fact. Similarly, virus hype, often generated by the anti-virus industry or well-meaning members of the media, portrays real but insignificant viruses as doomsday threats. We show how such hype is almost always wrong. Finally, we discuss corporate policies that have been proven to minimize the disruption of hoaxes and hype, and give corporate anti-virus administrators a wealth of information resources to which they can turn as new hoaxes and hype come to light.

As the Internet and worldwide e-mail has advanced, the ability for individuals to rapidly exchange ideas has grown accordingly. While there are a raft of benefits to this enhanced communication, new problems have been born out of this brave new world, and existing problems exacerbated. In this paper we will examine the dangers of virus-related hypes and hoaxes within the corporate environment. As concepts of hype and hoax are in no way merely virus-related [1], we will first turn our attention to the more general problem, before applying knowledge learned from more familiar hypes and hoaxes to computer-specific rumors. We will examine the type surrounding the "Tickle Me Elmo" doll [2] and the virtual pet Tamagocchi [3]; then, we will discuss the "Carlos" hoax [4] reportedly perpetrated by magician James Randi, and crop circle hoaxes. Next, we will examine the Michelangelo virus hype and the Good Times virus hoax. After examining these examples of hypes and hoaxes, we will discuss one popular model that attempts to account for the relative successes of different hypes and hoaxes: the "meme". The concept of the meme, a term first coined by Richard Dawkins, has gained widespread attention on the Internet and in literary and academic circles. Our brief exploration of meme theory will provide a framework that will allow us to distill appropriate models and analogies that can help your organization avoid falling victim to computer virus hoaxes and hypes.

Here, we will examine two well-known non-viral hypes: The Tickle Me Elmo doll and the virtual pet Tamagocchi. In both these cases we observe one particular toy gaining enormous popularity, becoming almost overnight a "must have" item. This fame is not merely the result of a good product well marketed, but also bears many of the distinguishing characteristics of hype.

Tickle Me Elmo is a doll, which laughs and shakes when tickled. In a frenzy somewhat reminiscent of the Cabbage Patch Kids [6], Tickle Me Elmo underwent a transformation from a Sesame Street character from the Children's Television Network, to a relatively simple to find and purchase children's toy to a cult hero with his own fan club. By December 1996, Elmo dolls were being sold to the highest bidder via newspaper ads and auction. Enterprising Internet users, in some cases, even established World Wide Web sites to facilitate the transactions. By early December of 1996, Tickle Me Elmo had gone from a high-quality reasonably priced toy (US$23.99-US$54.99 are the retail prices we found for this toy during the month of December, 1996) to a luxury item. Some people even stating that they would be willing to pay any price for one of the dolls [7].

The Tamagocchi, which translates as "cute little egg", is a key-chain computer game about the size and shape of an egg. The game is marketed as a "virtual pet". These virtual pets first appeared in late 1996, and are still in high demand as of August 1997, with many stores in the New York area limiting the number of Tamagocchi sold to individual customers. The pet is actually a tiny computer game, which begins when an "egg" on the display screen hatches into an animated icon somewhat reminiscent of a chicken. The virtual pet owner then takes care of the little "chicken" by using three tiny buttons to play with it, clean up after it, and discipline it. According to an article in The Washington Post [3], over 500,000 of the virtual pets have been sold, and are the Tickle Me Elmos of Japan. Prices for the pets from toy stores start at around $15.00, yet people desperate to own them have claimed paying as much as $1900.00 for a single pet. The success of this particular hype has spawned look-a-likes; the Tamagocchi shortage in America has created a market for virtual pet clones, and we have observed several sizes and shapes of virtual pets, often having similar sounding names.

What makes some hypes successful and some not? For now, we ask you to consider the following questions. What makes the public cry for more Tamagocchis, while the virtual pet clones continue to hang on racks in the toy stores? Why did Tickle Me Elmo capture the delight of thousands, while other equally cute characters sat on shelves, waiting for a child to ask for them on Christmas day? As you consider these questions, we will continue our exploration with an examination of "The Hoax."

In this section we will provide two important examples of non-viral hoaxes: Crop Circles and the mystic, Carlos. In both cases, the hoaxes were accompanied by intense media interest and speculation; speculation which eventually proved false.

In the early 70's a strange and mostly unnoticed phenomenon began to manifest itself in rural England. Mysterious circles pressed into cornfields began to appear. Initially very simple, over a period of ten years these crop designs became increasingly complex; circles attached to circles, circles tangential to circles. The most familiar pattern showed a large circle in the center of a square of four smaller circles.

Speculation was rampant concerning the cause of the mysterious cereal designs. Some sites were examined and a whole field (pun intended) of "science" was born. Some theories ascribed the circles to columnar vortices or ring vortices. Some, ball lightning; still others, that there were aliens among us, nocturnally and secretively (and presumably invisibly) landing in fields. Many books were published (there was even a journal devoted to the subject) and an awestruck and concerned public hung on every word printed by the popular press. Over time, the circles spread, and as of August 1997 have been reported all over the world, including the United States, Canada and Japan.

In 1991, however, the true cause of the crop circle mystery revealed itself: Doug Bower and Dave Chorley.

British hoaxters Doug Bower and Dave Chorley have admitted to making crop circles for 15 years [8][9]. Their confessions gained little attention, and like the confessions of many other crop-circle hoaxters, have been overshadowed by the excitement surrounding the initial discoveries of the circles. Despite that the hoaxters demonstrated to a variety of journalists that they could reproduce the most complex cereal designs, the revelation that nothing more other-worldly than a plank and some string was responsible for the patterns received very little media attention [10]. Most notably, it is our belief that although many hundreds of thousands of people could describe the crop circles in some detail, very few actually are even aware that it is a proven hoax.

Shortly after this sensational appearance and associated media coverage, it was revealed that the entire Carlos affair was a hoax. Using a young performance sculptor, and applying an old magic trick to make it appear as if one's pulse has stopped, magician James Randi and Sixty Minutes had engineered a beautiful hoax.

Although there are many interesting facets to the Carlos hoax, the most interesting in terms of this paper is that the Australian media seemed to make almost no serious effort to check the accuracy of any of the information distributed by Alvarez. The press kit that was distributed had several inconsistencies and facts that could have easily been verified but were not. Thus, although all the tools needed to uncover the fraud were in plain sight, the hoax was successful!

The most fitting and grandest hype of all time within the virus world was that which surrounded the Michelangelo virus. In the lead up to March 6th, 1992, the media coverage was so intensive that it was claimed that the University of Hamburg received over 25 mailbags full of requests for the VTC's free Michelangelo cure program. According to information about the hoax presented on the Computer Virus Myths World Wide Web Site, http://www.kumite.com/myths, it was during the leadup to "Michelangelo Day" that John McAfee reportedly claimed that "anywhere from 50,000 to five million" computers were infected [12]. When stories about the virus reached the popular press, the hype was truly unleashed. Reporters and newsgroups sprouted previously unknown "experts" on the virus, spreading even more misinformation. Virus Bulletin reported receiving calls from three separate users who had followed the accurate but short-sighted advice that a good way to see if one's computer was infected was to set the date to the trigger conditions and see if the virus triggered [13]. Believing hype can be dangerous.

Despite the fact that many prominent anti-virus researchers and Virus Bulletin quickly debunked the report as entirely fallacious, the myth of the Good Times virus refused to die, even resurfacing several months later, only to be once again reported as false in Virus Bulletin [14]. Indeed, even today queries about the Good Times virus are still occasionally seen on Internet newsgroups.

The text of the original message was rewritten and transformed several times. In one variation of the message, the virus placing the processor into "an nth-complexity infinite binary loop". However, the gist of the Good Times virus message remains the same: "This virus will erase your hard drive, be sure to tell all of your friends, pass this message along -- and beware of any e-mail with the Subject heading of 'Good Times'." One variation on the Good Times theme is The PenPal hoax, which advises you to delete any message with the subject of "PENPAL GREETINGS", because if you read it, the "Trojan Horse virus" will destroy all the data on your hard drive.

While each of these motivations is noble, each is insufficient for passing along an unsubstantiated virus warning. Your company may wish to let employees know that while their loyalty and good intentions are valuable, in the case of information about computer viruses, they should refer to a centralized source of information. One such resource is the antivirus online World Wide Web Site, http://www.av.ibm.com, where accurate and timely information on virus hypes and hoaxes is made freely available.

While the points made above at some level outline some of the reasons why hypes and hoaxes become successful, one important question cannot be meaningfully addressed by simply examining the human motivations and transport mechanism of the hoaxes/hype. In an attempt to ascertain which hypes and hoaxes will be successful and which will not, we will turn to the work of Richard Dawkins and the concept of the meme.

Finally, we would like you to consider the following quote from Sagan's wonderful book "The Demon Haunted World":

The tenets of skepticism do not require an advanced degree to master, as most successful used car buyers demonstrate. The whole idea of a democratic application of skepticism is that everyone should have the essential tools to effectively and constructively evaluate claims to knowledge. All science asks is to employ the same levels of skepticism we use in buying a used car or in judging the quality of analgesics or beer from their television commercials.

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