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Predictions update


Hackers gonna hack. Until they encounter lattice cryptography. (2018) 

IBM scientists are hard at work developing quantum-safe cryptographic protocols for future IBM commercial offerings including IBM Z, Blockchain and Storage solutions. More specifically, IBM researchers expect to have a working demonstration of quantum-safe storage, first for tape, by 2Q2019. IBM Services currently offers a quantum risk assessment for clients to determine their exposure for critical data platforms. 

AI bias will explode. But only the unbiased AI will survive (2018)

IBM Research has driven significant progress toward solutions that accelerate fairness in AI systems. We’ve developed techniques to detect and mitigate bias in datasets and models; AI Fairness 360, a comprehensive bias mitigation and education toolkit; a proposal to use factsheets to document the development and operation of AI services to cultivate trust; an approach to understanding and removing gender stereotypes; and a system to rate AI services for bias. And we released Diversity in Faces, a first-of-its-kind dataset of annotations of one million human facial images, to advance fairness in facial recognition technology.

Today, quantum computing is a researcher’s playground. In five years, it will be mainstream. (2018)

n 2019, IBM introduced IBM Q System One, the world's first integrated quantum computing system for commercial use. IBM Q System One enables universal approximate superconducting quantum computers to operate beyond the confines of the research lab for the first time. In 2018, IBM researchers also proved a quantum advantage over classical computers for certain mathematical problems using today's shallow quantum circuits. We expanded the IBM Q Network's global academic and commercial reach, announcing an academic partnership with Portugal's Minho University, and IBM Hubs at North Carolina State University, Bundewsehr University-Munich, and the University of Montpellier, as well as the first industry members of the IBM Q Hub at Japan’s Keio University: JSR, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Mizuho Financial Group, and Mitsubishi Chemical. And IBM Q made significant advances across the hardware and software stack, with the fourth-generation 20-qubit device that doubled the average accuracy of the previous version and the release of new Qiskit elements: Aqua for chemistry and Aer for simulations.

Macroscopes will help us understand Earth's complexity in infinite detail. (2017)

In 2018, IBM Research introduced an experimental offering named IBM PAIRS Geoscope (Physical Analytics Integrated Data Repository & Services), a unique cloud-centric geospatial information and analytics service that can accelerate the discovery of new insights. The service allows clients to bring their analytics to the data. It frees clients from the cumbersome processes that dominate conventional geospatial-temporal data acquisition and preparation and provides search-friendly, ready access to a rich, diverse, and growing catalog of historical and continuously updated geospatiotemporal information.

With AI, our words will open a window into our mental health. (2017)

Collaborations between clinicians and IBM scientists have demonstrated the potential of AI and speech to help professionals paint a more detailed picture of what’s happening within our minds. We’ve made progress in building AI algorithms to help identify patterns of cognitive impairment based on the structural complexity of people’s sentences. We’ve proven that AI and machine learning can be used to help identify speech patterns that correspond to schizophrenia vs. psychosis. And we’ve shown how machine learning can be used to analyze speech to predict the possibility of psychotic episodes. The work we’ve done has solidified our belief that individualized data—from speech to word choice to written text and physiological indicators—coupled with AI could be the key to helping health professionals better understand our own minds.

You won’t need to be a scientist to save the planet. (2010)

Citizen science - the collection of data relating to the natural world by members of the general public - has proven to be an effective method of monitoring and managing crucial environmental issues. IBM Research-Africa is working with the Kenya Resilient Arid Lands Partnership for Integrated Development (RAPID) to create a water management platform that addresses the needs of the approximately three million Kenyans living in the remote northern regions of the country without access to safe water. The platform uses sensors to provide supply and demand patterns based on groundwater extraction data and citizens can report an issue, such as a broken water pump, so it can be quickly located and addressed. In a non-IBM example, VanConnect is the City of Vancouver’s mobile app that lets you get in touch with the city on the go 24/7 to report garbage, graffiti, broken street lights and more.

It will be easy for you to be green and save money doing it (2007)

This prediction accurately forecasted both smart grid and smart home systems. Since then, IBM has worked with governments and utilities the world over to implement smart energy technologies. In 2009, IBM launched a smart grid project in Malta. In 2010, IBM announced a smart power outage prevention system with Shanghai Electric Power. By 2011, smart meters and smart grids had fully arrived, and smart home technology like smart thermostats connected to mobile apps began to take off. And in 2013, IBM announced a new wind and solar power predictive analytics tool that used power and weather modeling to forecast renewable energy production levels.

Forgetting will become a distant memory (2008)

This prediction boils down to people keeping track of their lives on a personal device, which has turned out to be on a smartphone for most people. Many aspects of this prediction have come true, from grocery shopping apps to digital assistants to voice recording options for time management. Today, people can view and manage their lives through several different screens, and control those screens in a variety of news. This makes it easy to not forget anything -- from appointments to wish lists. 

Cities will respond to a crisis -- even before receiving an emergency phone call. (2009)

In many areas around the world, networks are congested, connectivity is limited, and data growth is outpacing bandwidth. When disaster happens, millions of lives are at risk. To help build a safer planet, IBM and The Weather Company have introduced Mesh Network Alerts, the world's first platform to deliver weather alerts even in areas with limited Internet or cell connection.

Particularly crucial in emerging markets, Mesh Network Alerts has been rolled out in select countries across Africa, Asia and Latin America. This breakthrough proprietary technology aims to provide an alerting method during disasters or severe weather, and will be available within The Weather Channel App.

The technology is based on work by IBM Research scientists who have created a peer-to-peer mesh networking technology that allows any modern mobile device to communicate directly with another without needing any Wi-Fi or cellular connectivity.

 You will never need a password again. (2011)

IBM's behavioral biometric analysis capabilities in its digital banking fraud prevention technology, IBM Security Trusteer Pinpoint Detect, uses patented analytics and machine learning for real-time cognitive fraud detection. These new capabilities incorporate machine learning to help understand how users interact with banking websites, creating gesture models based on patterns of mouse movements that become increasingly more accurate over time.  

Through cognitive analysis of the gesture models, IBM Security Trusteer Pinpoint Detect can help determine when unauthorized users try to take over a bank account using stolen credentials by detecting anomalies from the real customer's interaction with a banking website. The technology understands the context and meaning of subtle mouse movements and clicks, and uses this information to develop increasingly more accurate gesture models through machine learning.